The lecture will start explaining why
uncertainty assessments are important for hydrological modellling. Then commonly
used uncertainty concepts and terminologies are explained and discussed – what
is uncertainty and how can it be characterized? This will be followed by an
introduction to a broad range of methods that can be used to estimate uncertainty,
such as error propagation, Monte Carlo analysis, ensemble modelling and expert
elicitation. Application of some of the uncertainty methods/tools will be illustrated
by examples from practical cases, including a case study on observational and
model predictive uncertainties in relation to distributed hydrological
modelling. At last, it is discussed why water managers need to consider
uncertainty when using hydrological models.
Key words:
Uncertainty, uncertainty methods, hydrological
model, water resources management, data, parameter model structure.